Tuesday, November 3, 2009

The Coming Collapse Part 2

So the gold market is being manipulated and is in trouble. But that isn't all that is going on.

CIT filed for bankruptcy Sunday night. And this is being downplayed by both the media and the government.

It was one year ago when Lehman went down in flames and the housing market crashed. Earlier this year CIT was deemed “to big to fail” and was given over 2 Billion TARP funds. Why should we care about CIT?

CIT is the nations largest loan holder for the SBA, and the largest loan holder for commercial real estate. And the government has decided they are not too big to fail after all.

Commercial real estate has been the big secret that no one has wanted to talk about. It is in the same bubble that housing was in before it's demise. The fact that CIT is bankrupt should be proof positive that the economy is not all sunshine.

Small business are not able to repay loans, and commercial properties are sitting empty and those loans are being defaulted. I think we should consider CIT to be the Lehman of commercial real estate. This will be the first domino to fall, but it will not be the only one.

One of the first victims of this new development will be an increase in bank failures. We are already sitting at 115 seized banks so far this year. I would expect that number to increase dramatically over the next month.

http://www.reuters.com/article/smallBusinessNews/idUSTRE5A22KL20091103

http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/02/news/tarp.travails.fortune/?postversion=2009110216

You can find plenty on this on your own. The thing to remember is that this is only the beginning of the commercial real estate crash that is coming. And it is also going to be dealing a blow to all small business that have been staying alive through loans and financing. What few life lines that have been out there are about to be severed.

But this isn't all that is bad and goes contrary to the happy economic news that is always being pushed on TV.

But so far just remember this:

Gold markets are being manipulated, commercial real estate is crashing, SBA loans are in default, more banks are about to be seized by the Federal Government.

And three names keep coming up, JP Morgan, Goldman Sach's, and Morgan Stanly. Keep that in mind as we move along.

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