Unemployment - The Real Numbers

The Government so wants us all to think everything is just fine and dandy. They want us to believe all that recovery money is making a difference. They want you to believe that unemployment is sitting pretty at 9.5%.

That is what they want you to believe. However the facts portray a very different view on what is going on.

I have already talked about the U1 through U6 system the government uses to declare unemployment numbers. U3 is the number they release to the public, U6 is closer to the truth, at 16.5%, however still skewed by the way they count things. And high as it is, it is still low.

In 200 the government added a new twist to the way it counts unemployment. It is called the Birth – Death Model. It was designed to account for the birth and death of businesses, and compensate for the lag in the reporting of numbers. But this model only works when the economy is expanding. It was not designed for economic contraction. As a result, it consistently overstates the number of jobs created, and people employed.

John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics takes the numbers the government now omits, or guesses were added by expanding businesses, and reconfigures the true unemployment numbers.

For June he estimates around 700,000 were lost, double what the government estimates with their revised methods of counting.

With his more accurate statical accounting, he puts current unemployment at 20.6%.

That would mean unemployment currently, is double what the government is estimating for the end of the year.

We all know the government is a master at manipulation. They make things look the way they want them to for a variety of reasons. In this case I would submit it is to keep people from panicking.

In the worst year of the Great Depression, unemployment was at 25%. That was 1933. And in 1933, the government was not Trillions of dollars in debt, and most people did not own a home to lose. We are on track for a Depression of epic proportion. But you will not hear that from the government, or the media.

The first Stimulus seems to have been a total waste of our money. Now they are talking about another one. Only the government will do the same failed thing over again and expect a different result.

The Green Shoots that The Fed likes to point out, seem to only be weeds growing in the empty parking lot of a deserted Circuit City.

As unemployment continues to rise at alarming rates, whether the government wants to admit it or not, the economy will continue to decline. As spending declines, more jobs will be lost, and the cycle continues.

Many people are reaching the end of their unemployment benefits. And still no prospect of a job. Home foreclosures are still on the rise. And when they point to housing sales going up, they neglect to mention it is foreclosed houses they are selling. And at bargain prices. Usually at 50 to 70% of what the value of the home was two years ago.

Things are not all sunshine and lollipops.